- November 11, 2020
According to the monthly data of CAICT, we estimated that about 72.5mn units of smartphone were shipped in mainland China in 3Q this year, down 28.4% YoY/30.3% QoQ. After a brief rebound in 2Q, the overall smartphone market returned to a downturn again. The weak shipment was mainly due to: 1) the launch of new iPhone 12, the first 5G handset of Apple, postponed to 4Q; 2) Huawei’s shipment decline caused by the new U.S. ban 915 on its supply chain; in our view. As a few of hot models will be launched in 4Q, including new iPhone 12, Huawei’s Mate 40, and OPPO’s new flagship equipped with the new hybrid optical zoom, we believe the weakness was short-lived and the shipment could recover in 4Q. On the 5G side, the total shipment in mainland China was 44.1mn units in 3Q, down 11.0% QoQ, but the 5G penetration had increased to 60.7% in 3Q from 47.6% last quarter, indicating that 5G has begun to dominate the smartphone market in China. In the long run, we expect breakthrough 5G applications such as AR/VR will boost a material wave of smartphone upgrades.
